The Long, Dark Winter of COVID-19
Headed into the holiday season, it can be difficult to understand how bad the current COVID-19 outbreak is, especially after eight months of living in a pandemic. The chart below is perhaps the best way I have to frame the winter we’re headed into.
The blue arrow is March 27th, the day the CARES Act was passed into law. This is the legislation that spurred $1,200 in stimulus checks to many Americans, and pumped $100 billion into the health care system, particularly for hospitals. On March 27th, there were 85,000 total COVID-19 cases in the U.S.
The orange arrow is April 13th, which was the peak of the outbreak in New York City. At that point, NYC had a daily new case rate of 64.5 cases per 100,000, and there were 554,000 total COVID-19 cases in the U.S.
The red arrow is November 18th, and the pandemic is seeing the worst surge yet, especially in the midwest. In Minnesota, the new case rate is over 120 cases per 100,000, nearly double the rate seen during New York City’s worst days. There are 11,465,000 total COVID-19 cases in the U.S.
I’ve used Minnesota data as the comparison in this map because it’s where I grew up and the midwest is the current center of the U.S. outbreak. But I do not use Minnesota to be the scariest data — in fact, the states surrounding it have all been harder-hit by the current surge. North Dakota, with a new case rate of nearly 180 cases per 100,000, and an incidence rate of nearly 1 in 1,000, is currently seeing the fastest spread of COVID-19 in the world.
I’m comparing the current surge in cases to the New York City outbreak for two reason: first, because it was then the worst we’d seen, and second, because in trying to combat new infections in the city, the country threw its resources behind the problem. To handle the surge of cases in New York, mobile hospitals were being built in Central Park and the naval hospital ship USNS Comfort was anchored in the Hudson, while doctors and nurses from across the country were flying into the city to fight clinician shortages.
In November, that picture is very different. Not only is the rate of infection much higher, resources from this spring have been depleted. Despite seven months of negotiations, the CARES Act in March was the last legislation to provide federal relief to address the pandemic. The impact of a one-time $1,200 check was quickly dwarfed by the effects of a $600-a-week supplementary Pandemic Unemployment Compensation, but that program expired in July. The unemployment rate remains near seven percent.
The health system is nearing its limit as well: the American Hospital Association reports that over half of states are seeing critical hospital personnel shortages, and hospital beds are running short as well. Sixteen states report less than 20% of ICU beds remain open, and New Mexico is already at 95% capacity. Long-term care facilities — where infections are particularly deadly — report continued personal protective equipment shortages and are struggling to keep up with testing requirements for their staff. Clinical laboratories are facing longer backlogs to process diagnostic tests as demand spikes and positivity rates climb too high to use mass-testing strategies.
Headed into the holiday travel season, those in charge seem to have largely given up on combating the crisis, raising hopeful vaccine press releases over efforts to address the virus in the present. In some areas that eased infection prevention measures earlier this year, tepid lockdowns are returning that caution against large groups or establish curfews on restaurants and nightlife. Many states, such as Texas or Florida, continue without additional efforts and have prioritized a return to normal commerce.
The U.S. remains the epicenter of the global pandemic, and the current surge is worse than anything we’ve seen yet. This time, there’s no help on the way.
For those considering travel during the upcoming holidays, let me share and reiterate the CDC’s warning against holiday travel. The safest way to celebrate the holidays is to skip travel and celebrate with the people you currently live with. Outside the household, wash your hands, wear a mask, and maintain social distancing.
